On 4 November, 5 pm at Wilde Pub, Tartu
The last 20 years have seen a profound change in the way we think about climate. Until the 1980s, it was believed that climate was stationary on timescales that mattered. Most strategic planning and decision-making from infrastructure design to health planning was based on this view. We knew climate fluctuated hugely on geological timescales, but this hardly seemed to matter for the next century. We also knew that extreme weather events can sometimes take place in Europe. But those were mainly seen as random events that we could forecast, with improving accuracy, a few days ahead. We believed that we could rely on long collections of past weather statistics to guide our decision-making.
Today this certainty is gone and there is a different story to tell…future climate will not be like that of the past and past weather statistics are no sure guide to our future experience of weather. Furthermore, the main reason for the destabilising of climate is our persistence with a carbon-based energy economy. So what are the consequences of this new understanding for the way that society relates to climate? How does it influence the way in which we manage and plan our resources and design our economies?
The scientific basis for climate change is now established beyond doubt. Atmosphere carbon dioxide concentration has risen from 280 ppmv to 380 ppmv in 150 years. European climate has warmed by very nearly 1degC over the last 100 years, and continues to warm at the rate of nearly 0.2degC per decade. Global average sea-level is rising at between 1 and 2mm per year. Winter precipitation has increased over large areas of Europe, becoming more intense for many regions, while the length of dry spells year around has grown significantly. Europe has longer growing seasons, fewer very cold winter spells and increasingly hot summer temperatures.
These trends foreshadow likely continued changes in European climate, sea-level and weather extremes over the coming century. But can we still influence climate change of the near and more distant future by mitigation efforts? How close are we to achieving EU and global policy objectives of limiting global warming? What can and should be done to improve the capability of European society to adapt to a changing climate?
Come and join the discussion with Professor Mike Hulme, who will present more evidence, illustrate some trends and debate the implications of climate change in Europe together with you.
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